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Mesure de la volatilité électorale en France, 1993-1997

Abstract : The study, based on two CEVIPOF surveys, measures electoral mobility between two elections (1993 Parliamentary/1995 Presidential elections ; 1995 Presidential/1997 Parliamentary elec­tions). It innnovates by its extensive definition of mobility, taking into account all possible choices, including non voting and invalid votes, and by differentiating, with the help of a log-linear model, between statistically significant mobility and « normal » mobility generated by the differences in the size of electorates. It shows that the rate of mobility is fairly high : half of the voters change their vote in two successive elections. But most of it consists in back and forth movements between voting and non voting, or in internal mobility, within the Left or the Right camps. The transgression of the Left/Right divide is exceptional, despite the rise of a party such as the Front national. To win an election, the problem is not so much to attract voters from the opposite side as to convince those who are on one's own side to go to the polls.
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Nonna Mayer, Daniel Boy, Marc Swyngedouw. Mesure de la volatilité électorale en France, 1993-1997. Revue Francaise de Science Politique, Fondation Nationale des Sciences Politiques, 2000, 50 (3), pp.489 - 514. ⟨hal-01011332v1⟩

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