Evolution of outpatient healthcare expenditure due to ageing in 2030, a dynamic micro-simulation model for France
Résumé
Population
ageing
will
be
a
major
challenge
in
Europe
in
the
coming
decades.
This
phenomenon
will
raise
the
question
of
the
sustainability
of
public
spending
with
increasing
healthcare
provision
costs.
This
paper
presents
a
dynamic
micro-‐simulation
model
for
outpatient
healthcare
expenditure
in
France,
which
projects
healthcare
costs
in
the
long
run.
Like
all
the
dynamic
micro-‐simulation
models,
the
model
projects
the
population
structure
over
time.
The
projections
are
run
using
a
transition
process
between
three
states:
two
non-‐absorbing
(good-‐health
or
ill-‐health)
and
one
absorbing
state
(death).
The
outpatient
healthcare
expenditure
is
estimated
on
data
between
2002
and
2008
through
a
two-‐part
model.
While
healthcare
spending
of
25
years
old
and
more
represent
3.9%
of
GDP
in
2008,
they
would
reach
4.6%
in
the
baseline
scenario
in
2032
(+0.7
percentage
point
of
GDP
or
+17.5%).
A
difference
in
the
share
of
expenditure
in
GDP
appears
between
scenarios
with
different
evolutions
of
health
status
during
the
projection
period.
Outpatient
healthcare
spending
represents
4.6%
of
GDP
in
the
central
scenario
in
2032,
against
4.4
%
in
the
most
optimistic
scenario
and
4.7%
in
a
pessimistic
scenario.
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