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Les infortunes de la vertu : Perspectives 2003-2004 pour l’économie mondiale

Abstract : In fall 2003, the global economic recovery is nigh, with the US and Asia leading, and the euro zone as a laggard. The transatlantic gap in GDP growth is partly caused by the differences in policy mixes : very expansionary in the US, moderately so in the euro area. Corporate balance sheets have improved, especially in the US. Investment financing is no longer constrained, yet, for it to recover, demand must improve — still a remote prospect in the euro area. By contrast, sustained US productivity gains in 2003 and 2004 keep boosting wages, which, in turn, help households to consume while reducing their debts. The lack of global inflationary pressures, due to negative output gaps, allows interest rates to stay low. At the end of 2004, GDP growth reaches 3 % in the US and 2 % in the euro zone.
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Submitted on : Tuesday, November 30, 2021 - 10:03:08 PM
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Xavier Timbeau, Hélène Baudchon, Odile Chagny, Valerie Chauvin, Elena Stancanelli, et al.. Les infortunes de la vertu : Perspectives 2003-2004 pour l’économie mondiale. Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences Po, 2003, pp.7 - 98. ⟨10.3917/reof.087.0007⟩. ⟨hal-03458685⟩



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