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Un choix, des logiques multiples : Préférences politiques, espace des possibles et votes en 2012

Abstract : Voting and voters have changed. The growing level of hesitation, the ups and downs of turnout and of partisan support are clear evidence of this change. In this article, we attempt to understand this “new deal” via the presentation and use of a particular tool: voting probability questions. These questions present a very different portrait of voters than the one drawn by the classical voting intentions questions. A negative logic of voting is now visible, as is the space of voting possibilities of individuals. Furthermore, these questions shed new light on the dynamics of the 2012 presidential campaign and on the ongoing ideological reconfiguration both on the left and on the right. These analyses are based on the TriÉlec surveys conducted between July 2011 and March 2012.
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Vincent Tiberj, Bernard Denni, Nonna Mayer. Un choix, des logiques multiples : Préférences politiques, espace des possibles et votes en 2012. Revue Francaise de Science Politique, Fondation Nationale des Sciences Politiques, 2013, 63 (2), pp.249 - 278. ⟨hal-01329886v2⟩

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