Towards the end of deflation in Japan ?

Mahito Uchida (1, 2)

1 IAO - Institut d'Asie Orientale
2 OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po)

In this paper, I investigate the Bank of Japan's monetary policy effects under Abenomics at the initial stage. First, I describe briefly what is “Abenomics” and “New monetary policy under Abenomics” since April 2013. I also examine the causes of the sharp response of the yen and Japanese stock prices, the increase of consumer price index and the change of the public's expectations for economic activity and prices on surveys. In the second part I explain why the new monetary policy was effective in 2013, comparing the previous policy until 2012. Although there is not so big difference between monetary policies before and after 2012 theoretically, I point out the importance of the strong commitment by central bank, the cooperation with the government and “psychological impact” on public. The third part discusses the durability of the new monetary policy. The policy effects will be sustainable if a price becomes lastingly positive, which needs a durably positive output gap. Therefore, growth strategy by Abenomics plays an important role. I also point out that the BOJ has to perform the policy over side effects such as the impact on the government bond markets, the impact on other financial market and an outflow of money to overseas.

Mots clés: Inflation target

Mots clés: Abenomics; Monetary policy; Interest rates

Domaines: Economies et finances

Mahito Uchida. Towards the end of deflation in Japan ?: Monetary policy under abenomics and the role of the central bank. Revue de l'OFCE, 2014, 135, pp.243 - 268. ⟨10.3917/reof.135.0243⟩. ⟨hal-03627437⟩