The Elusive Recovery

Georg Feigl (1) , Markus Marterbauer , Miriam Rehm (2) , Matthias Schnetzer , Sepp Zuckerstätter , Lars Nørvang Andersen (3) , Thea Nissen , Signe Dahl , Peter Hohlfeld , Benjamin Lojak , Thomas Theobald , Achim Truger , Andrew Watt , Guillaume Allegre (4) , Céline Antonin (4) , Christophe Blot (4) , Jérôme Creel (4) , Bruno Ducoudre (4) , Paul Hubert (4) , Sabine Lebayon , Sandrine Levasseur (4) , Hélène Périvier (4) , Raul Sampognaro (4) , Aurélien Saussay (4) , Vincent Touzé (4) , Sébastien Villemot (4, 5, 6, 7)

1 Institute of Anatomy
2 Universität Duisburg-Essen [Essen]
3 Aarhus University [Aarhus]
4 OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po)
5 PSE - Paris School of Economics
6 PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques
7 CEPREMAP - Centre pour la recherche économique et ses applications

Nearly nine years after the meltdown of the financial system of developed countries followed by the euro debt crisis in 2012, recovery in Europe finally started in late 2014. We expect that economic growth is going to slow down in the EU in 2017 (1.6% after 1.9 % in 2016) and in 2018 (1.5%) as tailwinds are turning into headwinds. Brexit is likely to hit UK growth and will have negative, but limited, contagion effects to the rest of the EU. Oil prices are up again and not much more can be expected in terms of competitiveness gains through the exchange rate channel. More importantly the slowdown of international trade and of emerging countries’ growth is weakening external demand to the EU and hence another positive factor is waning. [First paragraph]

Keywords: Euro area; Crisis; Market

Domains: Economics and Finance

Georg Feigl, Markus Marterbauer, Miriam Rehm, Matthias Schnetzer, Sepp Zuckerstätter, et al.. The Elusive Recovery: iAGS 2017. [Research Report] OFCE. 2016, 223 p. ⟨hal-03612850⟩