Birth cohorts between hysteresis and resilience effects: Social value of education and stratification in France and the US 1970-2005
Résumé
Most research pieces on age-period-cohort (APC) models assess the intensity
of cohort effects under the hypothesis of their stability over life course.
A new step in APC research is proposed here with a test on cohort effect
stability over life course. Such an hypothesis must be tested since examples
exist in which perfect hysteresis of cohort effects is not a realistic
assumption. The very recent ASR paper of Yang Yang and colleagues' (2008) on
APC models can be improved to provide such a diagnosis.
The example of the relation between diploma and social position (coded as
SEI or as EGP) over the latest decades demonstrates that strong cohort
fluctuations exist in the "returns to education" (in terms of occupational
position) of cohorts of young adults, but these fluctuations can (or can
not) be absorbed with their stabilization in adulthood. Here, "effect of
resilience" is defined as an effect of absorption of shocks experienced in
early adulthood. The intensity of "cohort effects" and of "resilience
effects" in early adulthood status attainment shocks are important
characteristics of welfare regimes: compared to the United States considered
as a liberal regime where labor flexibility is stronger, the French
conservative welfare regime induces stronger cohort effects (early adulthood
fluctuations are more intense) and less resilience (the shocks are more
durable since their absorption is weaker). France is a country with strong
and durable cohort fluctuations, implying gaps between "social generations"
(= socially polarizaed and constructed births cohorts), when the US are more
linear in this respect. Thus, a systematic analysis of stability/resilience
in cohort effects appears as an important issue in the APC research agenda,
since strong cohort effects without resilience should receive more attention
from sociologists.