HAL will be down for maintenance from Friday, June 10 at 4pm through Monday, June 13 at 9am. More information
Skip to Main content Skip to Navigation
Journal articles

Crise financière, inflation et Currency Board en Bulgarie : les leçons d'une transition indisciplinée

Abstract : The Bulgarian transition since 1991 was marked by two huge "financial pyramids" which erupted into the 1996-1997 crisis. From January to September 1996, there was an open banking panic, followed by a fiscal and public debt crisis due to ever rising interest payments, the sudden drop in the real value of tax revenues, and widespread expectations that the country would default on its foreign debt. This led to a quasi- hyperinflation in January and February 1997, followed by a remarkably fast stabilization. These different phases are analyzed, including from a political economy viewpoint; an assessment is then made of the Currency Board set up on July,l 1997. Attention is drawn to the importance of quantitative and expectational factors, which mark this period as "monetarist", in contrast with the inertia of inflation in Latin America, for example, where individual and collective mechanisms of defence against inflation are much stronger. This situation is evidence that the Bulgarian economy has weak social and institutional underpinnings, a situation typical of the undisciplined transitions in the Balkans and former USSR.
Document type :
Journal articles
Complete list of metadata

https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03585877
Contributor : Spire Sciences Po Institutional Repository Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Wednesday, February 23, 2022 - 2:31:44 PM
Last modification on : Friday, March 25, 2022 - 3:58:56 AM

File

article-receo-0338-0599-1999-n...
Publisher files allowed on an open archive

Identifiers

  • HAL Id : hal-03585877, version 1
  • SCIENCESPO : 2441/6961

Collections

Citation

Jérôme Sgard. Crise financière, inflation et Currency Board en Bulgarie : les leçons d'une transition indisciplinée. Revue d'Etudes Comparatives Est-Ouest, Presses Universitaires de France, 1999, 30 (2-3), pp.215 - 235. ⟨hal-03585877⟩

Share

Metrics

Record views

2

Files downloads

2