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Inflation, stabilisation et prix relatifs en Argentine et au Brésil : L'expérience des années quatre-vingt-dix

Abstract : This papers analyses the stabilisation programes which brought to an end twenty years of high or hyper-inflation, first in Argentina (1991), then in Brazil (1994). Rather than a full disindexation of the economy, as was aimed by the heteredox strategies of the mid-1980's, this new generation of programes aimed at stabilising nominal evolution via the full indexation of the price structure. In Argentina, this took the form of a rigid bimonetary regime, under the form of a rather classic Currency Board. In Brazil, the Piano Real has reconstructed in two steps a fully-fledged, single national currency : first the unit of account function was stabilised, then the unit of payment was exchanged through a standard monetary reform. A remarquable aspect of these two experiences is that, however the con­trast between their respective institutionnal arrangements, the actual constraints bearing on policy makers are very close : most of all, the strength of underlying indexation mechanisms, as the low level of monetisation imply that foreign exchange policy is extremely difficult to manage. In both countries, a sudden, dis­crete devaluation may rapidly cause a sharp acceleration of inflation. This should remain as a long-term sequel of past high inflation, which already imposes heavy constraints on micro-level, real adjustment.
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Jérôme Sgard. Inflation, stabilisation et prix relatifs en Argentine et au Brésil : L'expérience des années quatre-vingt-dix. Revue Economique, Presses de Sciences Po, 1998, 49 (1), pp.239 - 256. ⟨10.2307/3502504⟩. ⟨hal-03585833⟩



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