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France : croissance entravée : Perspectives 2005-2006 pour l’économie française

Abstract : Following the lowest yearly growth of the French economy since the 1993 recession, 2004 witnessed a recovery. With a 2.4% GDP increase owed mainly to household consumption growth in a sluggish context (a low purchasing power and a weak job market) which forced them to resort to dissaving and borrowing. The latter was helped by low interest rates, and these must remain low, together with sustained investment and job creation, for growth to spur in 2005. The healthy corporate financial situation should hence allow 2.2% and 2.4% GDP growth in 2005 and 2006, which would in turn lower unemployment and lead to higher wages. Risks of a setback in 2005 remain: an international slowdown or an oil crisis, more than a domestic fiscal adjustment towards a balanced budget (a strict fiscal stance would lower growth by -0.2% and 0.4% in 2005 and 2006), might impair growth.
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Submitted on : Saturday, December 11, 2021 - 9:55:00 PM
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Guillaume Chevillon, Gael Dupont, Hervé Péléraux, Mathieu Plane, Eric Heyer, et al.. France : croissance entravée : Perspectives 2005-2006 pour l’économie française. Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences Po, 2005, pp.79 - 123. ⟨10.3917/reof.093.0079⟩. ⟨hal-03476022⟩



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