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Le syndrome du poisson rouge : Perspectives 2011-2012 pour l'économie mondiale

Abstract : The world economy has continued to recover in 2010. However, GDP per head are still below their pre-crisis levels in all major industrial economies, while unemployment rates have stabilised at high levels. These deflationary patterns are hidden by the strong rise in raw material prices which has initiated a debate on the need for monetary tightening. Simultaneously, fiscal consolidation is being implemented in many industrial countries where fiscal deficits and debts increased during the crisis under the effects of fiscal support and automatic stabilisers. There is a risk that fiscal and monetary tightening implemented under market pressure undermine a still fragile recovery and hence deficit reduction. We expect world GDP will grow by close to 4% this year and next, after 4.8% in 2010, still driven by emerging economies.
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Submitted on : Friday, December 10, 2021 - 3:19:48 AM
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Céline Antonin, Marion Cochard, Sabine Le Bayon, Hervé Péléraux, Mathieu Plane, et al.. Le syndrome du poisson rouge : Perspectives 2011-2012 pour l'économie mondiale. Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences Po, 2011, pp.9 - 42. ⟨10.3917/reof.117.0009⟩. ⟨hal-03473797⟩

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