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La route vers la déflation ? : Perspectives 2010-2011 pour l’économie mondiale

Abstract : The recessive shock is behind us. We expect world GDP to grow by 4.5% in 2010 and 3.7% in 2011. In emerging countries, especially in Asia, activity has recently reached its previous peak or is even higher. The 2010 sovereign debt crisis had a moderate impact on euro area GDP growth. In the US, growth has recently slowed down, but there is no doubt about the Federal Reserve’s pragmatism. However, in industrial countries, which are close to or already in a liquidity trap, deflation is the main danger, because of a too rapid and too strong fiscal consolidation. A rise in real interest rates would worsen the recession. Accounting for the size of fiscal multipliers and an already expansionary monetary policy, a global fiscal stimulus would be necessary – at least in the EU.
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Hervé Péléraux, Danielle Schweisguth, Xavier Timbeau, Céline Antonin, Christophe Blot, et al.. La route vers la déflation ? : Perspectives 2010-2011 pour l’économie mondiale. Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences Po, 2010, pp.125 - 144. ⟨10.3917/reof.115.0125⟩. ⟨hal-03473771⟩



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