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Des conséquences patrimoniales de la désinflation

Abstract : The strong and fast decrease of inflation rate, that French economy had just experienced, has large patrimonial consequences. Inflation brings about reallocations and destortions, the cancelling of which alters, for each economic sector, the relation between income, saving and patrimonial accumulation. What will result for economic activity ? Patrimonial consequences of desinflation pass by four channels : the cutting down of the « seigniorage », which profited to banks, does not allow that interest rate decrease as much as inflation rate ; so real interest rate increases. By of interests payment inertia, the sectors in debt at fixed rates are at a loss. Ceteris partibus, the fiscal nominalism induces a decrease of taxes on income but worsens the increase of the real interest rate. At last, the misfitting of accounts concepts causes that the firms accounts show wrongly a fall of net profit, a rise of cash-flow and an improvement of debt ratio. According to National Accounts concepts, the firms are the main winners and the administrations also win ; the losers are the households in the short run ; the financial sector in the medium run. To take into account the financial assets depreciation alter strongly this result : the winners are the households. The losers are the firms and the administrations in the short run, the financial sector in the medium run. By themselves, the patrimonial consequences of desinflation would cause an increase of consumption prejudice to the detriment of capital formation ; in the same time, the government would be induced to restrain the fiscal policy. However, the accounting concepts may conceal the degradation of the firms situation and households may not be fully aware of their patrimonial earnings.
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Henri Sterdyniak. Des conséquences patrimoniales de la désinflation. Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences Po, 1986, pp.167 - 208. ⟨10.3406/ofce.1986.1076⟩. ⟨hal-03471014⟩



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