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Un monde presque parfait : Perspectives 2004-2005 pour l’économie mondiale

Abstract : In 2003, the world economy picked up again, after a bout of weakness in the first half of the year. Pulled by the US and the UK, growth spread to Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe. It should stay over 4% in 2004 and 2005. The US should see their disequilibria (public and current deficits, household indebtedness) diminish. Growth should slow down from 4.5% in 2004 to 3.4% in 2005. By contrast, the euro zone should grow by only 1.4% and 2.1% in 2004 and 2005. The impact of the recent appreciation of euro (– 1 point of GDP growth in 2004) and a restrictive policy mix should hinder growth, whereas the economic situation — a trough as deep as in the early 80s and early 90s — should require an expansionary policy.
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Submitted on : Wednesday, December 1, 2021 - 5:07:59 PM
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Xavier Timbeau, Hélène Baudchon, Odile Chagny, Valerie Chauvin, Guillaume Chevillon, et al.. Un monde presque parfait : Perspectives 2004-2005 pour l’économie mondiale. Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences Po, 2004, 2004/2 (89), pp.13-35. ⟨10.3917/reof.089.0013⟩. ⟨hal-03462298⟩



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