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Croissance mondiale : essai transformé : Perspectives 2005-2006 pour l’économie mondiale

Abstract : Driven by the USA, China and developing countries, world growth should stay high in 2005 and 2006 and progressively spread to other areas. In industrial countries, except in the euro area and Japan, the engines for growth are active fiscal policies combined with loose monetary policies that act through the housing markets and household debts. Heavy American disequilibria no longer pose a threat: they are reducing. Similarly, the progressive increase in oil prices should not have a major impact so long as household consumption offsets it via debts. Driven by private investment and consumption, US growth should reduce to its potential and be less dependent on fiscal policy. Inflation should remain under control. In a buoyant global environment, the euro area, dragged down by Germany and Italy should remain the laggard.
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Submitted on : Wednesday, December 1, 2021 - 4:42:49 PM
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Xavier Timbeau, Hélène Baudchon, Guillaume Chevillon, Marion Cochard, Amel Falah, et al.. Croissance mondiale : essai transformé : Perspectives 2005-2006 pour l’économie mondiale. Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences Po, 2005, 2005/4 (95), pp.13-35. ⟨10.3917/reof.095.0011⟩. ⟨hal-03462204⟩



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