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France : le coût d’outre-Rhin : Perspectives 2006-2007 pour l'économie française

Abstract : In 2005, France has experienced a low rate of growth (1.4%), which was mainly caused by the negative contribution of the external balance (–1%). But we still believe in a rebound, with growth rates at 2.2% in 2006 and 2.1% in 2007. The upward trend in business surveys that started in early 2005 continues into the beginning of this year. With the depreciation of the euro exchange rate, the position of French export order book has improved. The restored financial situation allows firms to borrow. Combined with the decrease of the unemployment, this boosts internal demand. In 2007, German competitive disinflation will be enforced by a decrease in the social contributions and an increase in the VAT. This non-cooperative policy will be the main cause of the growth slowdown in France next year.
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Guillaume Chevillon, Hervé Péléraux, Mathieu Plane, Eric Heyer, Marion Cochard, et al.. France : le coût d’outre-Rhin : Perspectives 2006-2007 pour l'économie française. Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences Po, 2006, pp.33 - 89. ⟨10.3917/reof.097.89⟩. ⟨hal-03462153⟩



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