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Politiques monétaires : objectif prix

Abstract : Monetary policies have been tightened in most industrial countries in recent months. The Fed has risen its rate from 0.75% in June 2004 to 4.75% in April 2006, while the ECB rose its rate from 2.0% last November to 2.5% in March. Central bankers pay particular attention to inflationary pressures in a context of high and still rising energy prices. We expect no second round effects, which would keep inflation close to Central Banks’ targets and would lead to a slight rise in short-term interest rates, up to 5.25% in June in the US and to 3% in the euro area. The BoJ will raise its rates from 0% to 0.5% this year as deflation has ended. Long-term interest rates will rise in line with short-term interest rates. Monetary conditions will be tightened this year and remain broadly unchanged next year.
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Catherine Mathieu, Christine Rifflart, Marion Cochard, Sabine Le Bayon. Politiques monétaires : objectif prix. Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences Po, 2006, pp.147 - 158. ⟨10.3917/reof.097.0147⟩. ⟨hal-03462149⟩



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