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Zone euro : serrez les rangs ! : Perspectives 2009-2010 pour l'économie européenne

Abstract : Due to the financial crisis, GDP declined by 1.5% in the fourth quarter of 2008. Consumption and investment decreased under lower indebtedness, leading to a severe adjustment on labour markets. Moreover, the recession was amplified by international developments and exports were strongly cut back. This situation is expected to continue in 2009 and GDP would fall by 3.3 %. The return to a positive quarterly growth would only occur from the second quarter of 2010 onwards. But investment would remain in a downward phase and households would still increase their savings, because of wealth effects. GDP would decrease by 0.3% in 2010, contrary to the United States where monetary and fiscal policies have been more reactive and aggressive.
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Christophe Blot, Sabine Le Bayon, Matthieu Lemoine. Zone euro : serrez les rangs ! : Perspectives 2009-2010 pour l'économie européenne. Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences Po, 2009, pp.171 - 184. ⟨10.3917/reof.109.0171⟩. ⟨hal-03461782⟩



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