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Petit précis de politique budgétaire par tous les temps : Les multiplicateurs budgétaires au cours du cycle

Abstract : The economic and financial crisis has given way to Keynesian fiscal policy. To avoid a collapse of economic and financial system, all OECD countries have implemented recovery plans. Even if the uncertainty regarding the recovery is high, time is now, in most countries, for the adoption of fiscal consolidation policies. After reviewing the various evaluations of fiscal multipliers in economic literature, according to the method and instrument used, we make our own assessments. Our contribution is to take into account the economic situation of the country. A positive fiscal impulse will have a different impact depending on the activity that the economy is at the bottom or top of the cycle. In the case of fiscal stimulus on top of the cycle, the inflationary impact gradually cancels positive effects of this policy. Conversely, this same policy led down cycle will be permanently effective: it is not inflationary, lowering the structural unemployment with actual unemployment.
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Submitted on : Wednesday, December 1, 2021 - 9:16:23 AM
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Jérôme Creel, Eric Heyer, Mathieu Plane. Petit précis de politique budgétaire par tous les temps : Les multiplicateurs budgétaires au cours du cycle. Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences Po, 2011, pp.61 - 88. ⟨10.3917/reof.116.0061⟩. ⟨hal-03460510⟩

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