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Les temporalités de la décision électorale : Approche comparée de la France et de la Belgique (Wallonie)

Abstract : The object of this article is to compare temporal aspects of voter decisions based on surveys carried out in southern Belgium and France over the past few decades. Given the marked disparities between the Belgian and French elections in terms of both political system and voting rules, any common trends discernible between the two would lend the comparison a validity extending beyond the specific cases under scrutiny. Our approach is inspired by current hypotheses, chiefly from the United States, concerning voting patterns. Elaborating on theories of the rational voter, these new hypotheses predict that during electoral campaigns there will an ever-growing contingent of voters who are more and more “sophisticated” and less and less bound by partisan sympathies. An empirical analysis shows that the electorate can be broken down into three main segments : voters who made up their minds before the campaign, those who decide early on in the campaign, and those who make up their minds at the last moment. Only the middle group exhibits a rational-type profile and behaviour.
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Submitted on : Wednesday, December 1, 2021 - 4:29:03 AM
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Elisabeth Dupoirier, André-Paul Frognier. Les temporalités de la décision électorale : Approche comparée de la France et de la Belgique (Wallonie). Revue Francaise de Science Politique, Fondation Nationale des Sciences Politiques, 2009, 59 (3), pp.507 - 533. ⟨10.3917/rfsp.593.0507⟩. ⟨hal-03459990⟩

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