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Inflation : prix au piège

Abstract : Considering the ongoing process of strong increases in inflation rates, this paper is interested in the risk that price and wage-setting behaviour could add to inflationary pressures. We first come back to the reasons that recently fuelled the rise in prices (oil and food prices) and assess whether those increases may be permanent or transitory. On that point, we expect that tensions and headline inflation rates should moderate. Then, we focus on the risks for second-round effects due to past increases. Inflation models are estimated for Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the United States and the euro area as a whole where we analyze the elasticity of consumer price inflation to oil prices. It is shown that prices are not fully indexed. Second-round effects should then not materialize.
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Submitted on : Wednesday, December 1, 2021 - 3:39:27 AM
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Christophe Blot, Marion Cochard, Matthieu Lemoine, Paola Veroni, Hervé Péléraux, et al.. Inflation : prix au piège. Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences Po, 2008, pp.249 - 273. ⟨10.3917/reof.105.0275⟩. ⟨hal-03459808⟩



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