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France : menaces sur la croissance : Perspectives 2008-2009 pour l'économie française

Abstract : Forecasts on the French economy for 2008 and 2009 are ambivalent. On the one side, the risks we identified 6 months ago (financial crisis, strength of euro and oil prices) did affected French growth in 2007 (+1.9%). This international environment should remain the main constraint in 2008 and 2009. On the other side, business surveys remain optimistic: first, their solid financial situation should allow firms to invest. Second, German competitive disinflation should stop. Moreover, household consumption should remain dynamic, thanks to a slight decrease in the saving rate and the implementation of the tax cuts voted in 2007. All together, French growth should reach 1.9% in 2008 and 2.3% in 2009. But this expansionary fiscal policy should draw the public deficit over the Maastricht criteria of 3% of GDP, which could force the government to implement restrictive measures in 2009.
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Submitted on : Wednesday, December 1, 2021 - 3:38:49 AM
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Eric Heyer, Marion Cochard, Matthieu Lemoine, Hervé Péléraux, Mathieu Plane. France : menaces sur la croissance : Perspectives 2008-2009 pour l'économie française. Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences Po, 2008, pp.117 - 179. ⟨10.3917/reof.105.0181⟩. ⟨hal-03459806⟩



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