HAL will be down for maintenance from Friday, June 10 at 4pm through Monday, June 13 at 9am. More information
Skip to Main content Skip to Navigation
Journal articles

France : menaces sur la croissance : Perspectives 2008-2009 pour l'économie française

Abstract : Forecasts on the French economy for 2008 and 2009 are ambivalent. On the one side, the risks we identified 6 months ago (financial crisis, strength of euro and oil prices) did affected French growth in 2007 (+1.9%). This international environment should remain the main constraint in 2008 and 2009. On the other side, business surveys remain optimistic: first, their solid financial situation should allow firms to invest. Second, German competitive disinflation should stop. Moreover, household consumption should remain dynamic, thanks to a slight decrease in the saving rate and the implementation of the tax cuts voted in 2007. All together, French growth should reach 1.9% in 2008 and 2.3% in 2009. But this expansionary fiscal policy should draw the public deficit over the Maastricht criteria of 3% of GDP, which could force the government to implement restrictive measures in 2009.
Document type :
Journal articles
Complete list of metadata

https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03459806
Contributor : Spire Sciences Po Institutional Repository Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Wednesday, December 1, 2021 - 3:38:49 AM
Last modification on : Monday, May 9, 2022 - 3:54:03 PM

File

2008-04-heyer-france-menaces-s...
Publisher files allowed on an open archive

Identifiers

Collections

Citation

Eric Heyer, Marion Cochard, Matthieu Lemoine, Hervé Péléraux, Mathieu Plane. France : menaces sur la croissance : Perspectives 2008-2009 pour l'économie française. Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences Po, 2008, pp.117 - 179. ⟨10.3917/reof.105.0181⟩. ⟨hal-03459806⟩

Share

Metrics

Record views

2

Files downloads

3