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Retour de flamme : Perspectives 2008-2009 pour l’économie mondiale

Abstract : The US subprime mortgage crisis degenerated into a generalized financial turmoil at the end of 2007. The systemic risk has been prevented by the prompt reaction of central banks proceeding to cash injections, repurchase of bad loans and interest rates cuts by the Federal Reserve. The US economy will be the most affected, but the loosening of monetary policy combined with a fiscal stimulus should dam up a recession. Growth in emerging countries will decelerate but only marginally thanks to a solid domestic demand and a cleansed financial situation. The euro zone will be penalized by the appreciation of the euro and negative wealth effects, but growth should remain close to its potential. A credit crunch should be avoided as banks prudential constraints are not saturated at the macro-economic level.
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Submitted on : Wednesday, December 1, 2021 - 3:38:15 AM
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Xavier Timbeau, Christophe Blot, Marion Cochard, Amel Falah, Eric Heyer, et al.. Retour de flamme : Perspectives 2008-2009 pour l’économie mondiale. Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences Po, 2008, pp.91 - 116. ⟨10.3917/reof.105.0117⟩. ⟨hal-03459802⟩

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