Financial stability and economic performance in Europe

Jérôme Creel (1) , Paul Hubert (1) , Fabien Labondance (1)

1 OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po)

This paper aims at establishing the link between economic performance and financial stability in the European Union. We use the seminal framework of Beck and Levine (2004) – both in terms of variables and econometric method – to estimate this causal relationship, independently from but controlling for the level of financial depth. Using a panel GMM with instrumental variables, our contribution involves testing how different measures of financial instability (an institutional index, microeconomic indicators, and our own statistical index derived from a principal component analysis) affect economic performance (or components of aggregate dynamics like consumption, investment and disposable income). We find that financial instability has a negative effect on economic growth.

Keywords: Financial depth; Aggregate dynamics; Financial stability; Z-score; Non-performing loans; Banks

Domains: Humanities and Social Sciences; Economics and Finance

Jérôme Creel, Paul Hubert, Fabien Labondance. Financial stability and economic performance in Europe. Economic Modelling, 2015, 48, pp.25 - 40. ⟨10.1016/j.econmod.2014.10.025⟩. ⟨hal-03459729⟩