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Toward a low carbon growth in Mexico : is a double dividend possible ? A dynamic general equilibrium assessment

Gissela Landa
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Frédéric Reynés
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Abstract

This paper simulates the medium- and long-term impact of proposed and expected energy policy on the environment and on the Mexican economy. The analysis has been conducted with a Multi-sector Macroeconomic Model for the Evaluation of Environmental and Energy policy (Three-ME). This model is well suited for policy assessment purposes in the context of developing economies as it indicates the transitional effects of policy intervention. Three-ME estimates the carbon tax required to meet emissions reduction targets within the Mexican “Climate Change Law”, and assesses alternative policy scenarios, each reflecting a different strategy for the recycling of tax revenues. With no compensation, the taxation policy if successful will succeed in in reducing CO2 emissions by more than 75% by 2050 with respect to Business as Usual (BAU), but at high economic costs. Under full redistribution of carbon tax revenues, a double dividend arises and the policy is beneficial both in terms of GDP and CO2 emissions reduction.
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hal-03459685 , version 1 (01-12-2021)

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Gissela Landa, Frédéric Reynés, Ivan Islas, François-Xavier Bellock, Fabio Grazi. Toward a low carbon growth in Mexico : is a double dividend possible ? A dynamic general equilibrium assessment. 2015. ⟨hal-03459685⟩

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