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Politique budgétaire discrétionnaire en France : Les effets à court et à long terme

Abstract : Assessing the discretionary component of a fiscal policy is a difficult task. With a vector autoregressive model of the us economy and thanks to an original identification procedure, Blanchard and Perotti [2002, qje] were able to estimate thoroughly the impact on gdp of a discretionary shock on public expenditures or tax receipts. Adopting a longer term view with theoretical restrictions to identify the model deriving from the Fiscal theory of the price level, we show that, in France, the fiscal multiplier grows over time, from 0.8 in the short run (in the best case) to 2 in the long run. The empirical validity of the Fiscal theory is also discussed.
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Jérôme Creel, Paola Veroni, Francesco Saraceno. Politique budgétaire discrétionnaire en France : Les effets à court et à long terme. Revue Economique, Presses de Sciences Po, 2007, 58 (5), pp.1035 - 1053. ⟨10.3917/reco.585.1035⟩. ⟨hal-03459628⟩



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