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Journal articles

Nairu en zone heureuse

Abstract : The aim of this special study consists in estimating the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) for the aggregated euro area, France, Italy and Germany. An equation, estimated with the Kalman filter, relates the inflation variation with the terms of trade and the gap between the unemployment and the Nairu. The basic model, where the Nairu is specified as a random walk, shows bad forecasting properties. With this model, the forecasted unemployment rate would become lower than the Nairu before 2008. Another model relates the Nairu with the unemployment rate. This relation is significant for all countries and is interpreted as a hysteresis effect. Moreover, this model forecasts lower values of the Nairu and, for this reason, we do not expect inflation tensions.
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Submitted on : Wednesday, December 1, 2021 - 1:56:50 AM
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Frédéric Reynés, Matthieu Lemoine, Paola Veroni. Nairu en zone heureuse. Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences Po, 2007, pp.227 - 234. ⟨10.3917/reof.101.0227⟩. ⟨hal-03459585⟩

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