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Inflation : retour d'une crainte ou crainte d'un retour ?

Abstract : Industrialize countries and most of the developing ones managed to impose a low inflation in a context of floating exchange rates. This study wonders if this phenomenon is everlasting. First, we carry out a retrospective analysis on the evolution of inflation. It is argued that following adverse supply shocks in the 1970’s, the rise in inflation was favored by the collapse of Bretton-Woods that imposed a nominal anchoring for exchange rates and thus for inflation. Then, we expose the three main factors which allowed the reduction of inflation from the very beginning of the 1980’s in industrialized countries: changes in monetary policy strategy, implementation of structural reforms on goods and labor markets and globalization. Lastly, the risks of a possible come-back of inflation are evaluated in a prospective section.
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Xavier Timbeau, Christophe Blot, Frédéric Reynés, Marion Cochard. Inflation : retour d'une crainte ou crainte d'un retour ?. Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences Po, 2006, pp.157 - 177. ⟨10.3917/reof.099.0157⟩. ⟨hal-03459232⟩



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