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Découplage en douceur : Perspectives 2006-2007 pour l’économie mondiale

Abstract : The world economy has proved to be particularly resilient to various shocks and global imbalances since the Internet bubble burst in 2000. The 2005 slowdown turned out to be shorter and smoother than expected and world economy is back on a high growth path in 2006. The reversal of the American real estate market is the main source of worry for 2007. We expect however the US economy to land softly. The housing market would adjust to a temporary excess supply without degenerating into a severe crash. Long term interest rates would be kept low thanks to subdued inflationary pressures and the prolongation of Asian central banks interventions, moderating the impact on world growth. In 2007 the US economy ceases to be the main engine of growth, relayed by Asia, Japan and to a lesser extend Europe.
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Submitted on : Tuesday, November 30, 2021 - 11:45:48 PM
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Catherine Mathieu, Christine Rifflart, Danielle Schweisguth, Hervé Péléraux, Mathieu Plane, et al.. Découplage en douceur : Perspectives 2006-2007 pour l’économie mondiale. Revue de l'OFCE, 2006, 99, pp.13 - 30. ⟨10.3917/reof.099.0011⟩. ⟨hal-03459230⟩

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