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Journal articles

Potentiels moins freinés

Abstract : Basing upon OECD’s estimates of potential output growth for France (1.9%), Germany (1.5%) and Italy (1.3%), we investigate the permanent nature of such a divergence. Potential output estimates based on filtering techniques extrapolate temporary evolutions in productivity and labour force which may be irrelevant when projecting growth on a longer time horizon. We correct for this sample’s end bias by using assumptions on the long term evolution of the main demographic and economic variables, which are consistent with the medium-term equilibrium of reformed social protection systems. Potential growth is expected to slow down to 1,7% by 2050 in France and to 1,1% in Germany and Italy. The most recent upward revisions of population growth in France and Italy account for respectively 0,3 and 0,1 point of higher growth in 2050 as compared to previous projections.
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Submitted on : Tuesday, November 30, 2021 - 11:44:26 PM
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Frédéric Reynés, Matthieu Lemoine, Paola Veroni. Potentiels moins freinés. Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences Po, 2006, pp.207 - 215. ⟨10.3917/reof.099.0207⟩. ⟨hal-03459221⟩

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