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Croissance sans châtiment : Perspectives 2006-2007 pour l’économie mondiale

Abstract : Gone is the early decade’s turmoil, growth is back on a sustainable path. The expected 2005 slowdown turned out benign in the US, Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe, hardly noticeable in Asia, absent in Japan which emerged out of deflation. Prospects for 2006 and 2007 should confirm this. Disequilibria have had no major impact: the hike in oil prices has not fuelled inflation; central bankers have maintained their credibility, this kept long term interest rates low. As a result, housing markets have proved buoyant and savings rates have decreased, thus providing an effective transmission channel for a possible rise in interest rates. US Current account is becoming abysmal; disequilibria settle and push growth further. The storm should stay at bay so long as faith in people’s and countries’ situations remains.
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Submitted on : Tuesday, November 30, 2021 - 11:30:54 PM
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Guillaume Chevillon, Catherine Mathieu, Christine Rifflart, Hervé Péléraux, Mathieu Plane, et al.. Croissance sans châtiment : Perspectives 2006-2007 pour l’économie mondiale. Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences Po, 2006, pp.13 - 31. ⟨10.3917/reof.097.31⟩. ⟨hal-03459164⟩

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