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L'axe de la croissance : Perspectives 2005-2006 pour l’économie mondiale

Abstract : With a yearly average of 5%, world growth proved exceptional in 2004 and should continue in 2005 and 2006 albeit at a lower pace due to the partial balancing of the disequilibria at work since 2001. The two main engines for growth will remain the United States and China, whereas the Euro zone and Japan will be left off of this axis of growth. Asian central banks should keep financing the US deficit, and hence its growth, because by sustaining the dollar exchange rate against their own currencies, they maintain their price competitiveness and ensure sufficient demand for their own products. Inflation stability is hence necessary for a slight correction of the borrowing and housing excesses. The US deficit should stabilize from early 2005. The Euro area would strongly benefit from such a soft landing.
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Elena Stancanelli, Guillaume Chevillon, Hélène Baudchon, Gael Dupont, Catherine Mathieu, et al.. L'axe de la croissance : Perspectives 2005-2006 pour l’économie mondiale. Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences Po, 2005, pp.39 - 78. ⟨10.3917/reof.093.0039⟩. ⟨hal-03458924⟩



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