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Pétrole : marée noire sur la croissance ?

Abstract : Since early 2004, oil prices have increased by 50% as a combined result of a demand shock, tensions on production capacities and supply disruptions. The surplus of wealth from oil importing to exporting countries nears 100 bn dollars (0.3% of OECD GDP) in the whole year. Households’ real income should decrease by 0.3 point in the euro zone and by 0.5 point in the US. According to our oil price forecasts (33 dollars a barrel by the end of 2005), GDP growth should be reduced by 0.4 point in 2004-2005. Should prices remain at 50 dollars throughout 2005, growth in industrial countries will be further impaired (0.6 point with a monetary policy response), but developing economies will suffer more. Oil producing countries should increase their imports and the reintroduction of petro dollars on financial markets should hold international interest rates down.
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Elena Stancanelli, Valerie Chauvin, Guillaume Chevillon, Odile Chagny, Hélène Baudchon, et al.. Pétrole : marée noire sur la croissance ?. Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences Po, 2004, pp.203 - 215. ⟨10.3917/reof.091.0203⟩. ⟨hal-03458791⟩



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