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Méprise sur la reprise : Perspectives 2004-2005 pour l’économie française

Abstract : With an annual rate of 0.2%, the French economy underwent in 2003 the lowest growth since the 1993 recession. For the first time since 1997, it also grew more slowly that the euro area owing to its asthenic external trade. However, France will benefit in 2004 from a record number of workable days and early retirement measures which will help the unemployed. Hence, the French economy may well take advantage of the international recovery to boost domestic demand and investment. Growth might, thus, be sustained enough for France to respect its public deficit obligations towards Brussels. Unfortunately, we forecast a more uneven path until 2005: the lagged effects of the appreciation of the euro and restrictive economic policies will depress an otherwise buoyant growth rate to some sluggish 1.5% in 2004 and a return to the long term potential of 2.3% in 2005.
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Submitted on : Tuesday, November 30, 2021 - 10:18:55 PM
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Valerie Chauvin, Guillaume Chevillon, Gael Dupont, Mathieu Plane, Eric Heyer, et al.. Méprise sur la reprise : Perspectives 2004-2005 pour l’économie française. Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences Po, 2004, pp.37 - 82. ⟨10.3917/reof.089.0037⟩. ⟨hal-03458749⟩



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