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Politiques monétaires : l’immobilisme en mouvement

Abstract : Strong demand is as much important as easy financing conditions. With recovery gaining momentum, the last thing central banks want to do is to take a chance with it. Firms are now in a more sound shape but households’ indebtedness is still high. And financial markets have become very sensitive to the way central banks communicate. A prudent tightening will be accompanied by a small rise of long term interest rates. The Federal Reserve will start raising rates at the end of 2004 and by only 125 bp over 2005. The Bank of England, already engaged in a tightening cycle since last November, will push them up further by 100 bp. The European Central Bank will follow the move in 2005, raising rates only once by 25 bp. The Bank of Japan will make no change to its quantitative policy.
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Elena Stancanelli, Valerie Chauvin, Guillaume Chevillon, Odile Chagny, Hélène Baudchon, et al.. Politiques monétaires : l’immobilisme en mouvement. Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences Po, 2004, pp.163 - 182. ⟨10.3917/reof.089.0163⟩. ⟨hal-03458741⟩



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