Central Bank information and the effects of monetary shocks

Paul Hubert (1)

1 OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po)

Does the effect of monetary policy depend on the macroeconomic information released by the central bank? Because differences between central bank’s and private agents’ information sets affect private agents’ interpretation of policy decisions, this paper aims to investigate whether the publication of macroeconomic information by the central bank modifies private responses to monetary policy. We assess the non-linear effects of monetary shocks conditional on the Bank of England’s macroeconomic projections on UK private inflation expectations. We find that inflation projections modify the impact of monetary shocks. When contractionary monetary shocks are interacted with positive (negative) projections, the negative effect of policy on inflation expectations is amplified (reduced). This suggests that providing guidance about central bank future expected inflation helps private agents’ information processing, and therefore changes their response to policy decisions..

Keywords: Monetary policy; Information processing; Signal extraction; Market based inflation expectations; Central bank projections; Real time forecasts

Domains: Economics and Finance

Paul Hubert. Central Bank information and the effects of monetary shocks. 2017. ⟨hal-03458550⟩