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L'utilisation des enquêtes de conjoncture pour modéliser et prévoir la production industrielle

Abstract : Industrial production level forecasting is of prime importance for short-term analysis. This article points out how important inventory movements are in fluctuations of production ; but the evolution of inventories is not well known since it can only be measured by difference. Four methods to study short horizon stocking and production behavior are compared, using the INSEE business surveys. It is not possible to show directly the theoretical schema by which producers would adjust their stocks to a standard level. But on the other hand, a considerable amount of the movements of stocks may be explained using the stocks surveys and the non-expected fluctuations of sales. Finally it appears that firms have the means of reacting almost completely to sales fluctuations on a quarterly horizon, which throws a shadow of doubt on the interest of the « expected production » survey. But important fluctuations of inventory movements remain unexplained.
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Christian Vasseur, Henri Sterdyniak. L'utilisation des enquêtes de conjoncture pour modéliser et prévoir la production industrielle. Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences Po, 1984, pp.171 - 187. ⟨10.3406/ofce.1984.984⟩. ⟨hal-03458089⟩

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