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France: growth as inheritance

Abstract : This text summarizes the OFCE’s 2017-2019 forecast for the French economy; the full version can be found here. After five years of sluggish growth (0.8% on average over the period 2012-16), a recovery is finally taking shape in France, with GDP expected to rise by 1.8% in 2017, 1.7% in 2018 and 1.9% in 2019. Some negative factors that affected 2016 (a fall in agricultural production, impact of terrorist attacks on tourism, etc.) were no longer at work in 2017, and the economy should now feel the full benefit of the supply-side policies implemented during the Hollande presidency. Added to this is the ripple effect from stronger growth in the European economies. Fiscal consolidation should be at a lower level in the coming two years[1] (0.3 GDP point over 2018-2019), and should not jeopardize the ongoing recovery or the fall in unemployment that started in 2015. In total, by incorporating the delayed impact of past supply-side policies, fiscal policy will have a neutral impact on GDP growth in 2018 and a slightly positive one in 2019 (+0.2 GDP point). The reduction of the public deficit will be slow (2.9% of GDP in 2017, 2.6% in 2018 and 2.9% in 2019), but this masks a sharp improvement in the public balance in 2019, excluding the one-off impact from the conversion of the CICE tax credit. The reduction should be sufficient to stay below the 3% mark and ensure the exit from the corrective arm of the Stability Pact. [First paragraph]
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https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03455395
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Submitted on : Monday, November 29, 2021 - 4:04:42 PM
Last modification on : Friday, June 3, 2022 - 3:40:27 AM

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Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution - NonCommercial - NoDerivatives 4.0 International License

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Eric Heyer, Mathieu Plane, Bruno Ducoudré, Hervé Péléraux. France: growth as inheritance. 2017. ⟨hal-03455395⟩

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