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Intégration financière et régime de change dans les pays candidats

Abstract : European Financial Integration and Exchange Rate Regimes in CEECs by Mathilde Maurel The Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs ) entering the EU in May 2004 are expected to have a monetary policy compatible with the ERM-II system to eventually enter EMU (European Monetary Union ). Abandoning an independent monetary policy could entail significant costs for countries in the process of catching up . However , these costs have probably been overestimated , biased by the traditional optimal currency area criteria . Firstly , these costs actually change depending on whether they are evaluated ex ante and ex post accession . Between times , financial integration is likely to increase significantly , which changes the evaluation parameters . Accession to the EU and greater capital mobility means that there is little room left for an independent monetary policy , especially in relatively small countries more vulnerable to speculative attacks . Secondly , while the link between choice of exchange rate regime and the underlying fundamentals is somewhat tenuous , the political determinants prove to be decisive . Keywords : exchange rate arrangements , accession to EMU , EU enlargement , international capital flows
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Submitted on : Friday, November 5, 2021 - 8:44:20 PM
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  • HAL Id : hal-03417666, version 1
  • SCIENCESPO : 2441/723

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Mathilde Maurel. Intégration financière et régime de change dans les pays candidats. Economie et Prévision, Minefi - Direction de la prévision, 2004, pp.17 - 32. ⟨hal-03417666⟩

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