The state-dependence of output revisions
Résumé
This paper investigates whether economic activity dynamics predict GDP revisions using panel data from 15 OECD countries. We find that economic activity predicts GDP revisions: early releases tend to overestimate GDP growth during slowdowns –and vice-versa. We also find that the source of the predictability could be related to the sampling of information collection. Finally, the predictability comes from short-term economic activity dynamics rather than business cycle position.
Domaines
Economies et finances
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2020-ducoudre-the-state-dependence-of-output-revisions.pdf (1.25 Mo)
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