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The state-dependence of output revisions

Abstract : This paper investigates whether economic activity dynamics predict GDP revisions using panel data from 15 OECD countries. We find that economic activity predicts GDP revisions: early releases tend to overestimate GDP growth during slowdowns –and vice-versa. We also find that the source of the predictability could be related to the sampling of information collection. Finally, the predictability comes from short-term economic activity dynamics rather than business cycle position.
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Preprints, Working Papers, ...
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https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03403073
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Submitted on : Tuesday, October 26, 2021 - 8:54:46 AM
Last modification on : Monday, March 21, 2022 - 2:48:18 PM
Long-term archiving on: : Thursday, January 27, 2022 - 6:42:24 PM

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Bruno Ducoudre, Paul Hubert, Guilhem Tabarly. The state-dependence of output revisions. 2020. ⟨hal-03403073⟩

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