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The state-dependence of output revisions


This paper investigates whether economic activity dynamics predict GDP revisions using panel data from 15 OECD countries. We find that economic activity predicts GDP revisions: early releases tend to overestimate GDP growth during slowdowns –and vice-versa. We also find that the source of the predictability could be related to the sampling of information collection. Finally, the predictability comes from short-term economic activity dynamics rather than business cycle position.
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hal-03403073 , version 1 (26-10-2021)



Bruno Ducoudre, Paul Hubert, Guilhem Tabarly. The state-dependence of output revisions. 2020. ⟨hal-03403073⟩
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