The state-dependence of output revisions

Bruno Ducoudre (1) , Paul Hubert (1) , Guilhem Tabarly (2, 3)

1 OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po)
2 Université Paris Dauphine-PSL
3 LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine

This paper investigates whether economic activity dynamics predict GDP revisions using panel data from 15 OECD countries. We find that economic activity predicts GDP revisions: early releases tend to overestimate GDP growth during slowdowns — and vice-versa. We also find that the source of the predictability could be related to the sampling of information collection. Finally, the predictability comes from short-term economic activity dynamics rather than business cycle position.

Keywords: Gross domestic product; National accounts; Revision analysis

Domains: Economics and Finance

Bruno Ducoudre, Paul Hubert, Guilhem Tabarly. The state-dependence of output revisions. Economics Letters, 2020, 192, ⟨10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109223⟩. ⟨hal-03403017⟩