The Impact of Urbanization on the Electoral Results of the 2014 Indian Elections
Résumé
During the 16th Lok Sabha elections, the BJP achieved unprecedented successes in rural as well as urban constituencies. Its progress has resulted from its growing popularity among almost every social group, its expansion being significant beyond its core supporters cutting across various classes, castes and communities—except the Muslims. While it remained more popular in the urban constituencies, the BJP has therefore largely blurred the traditional urban–rural divide. But this distinction has not been totally neutralized, as is evident from regional and social variations which need to be explained. The impact of the rural–urban divide remained particularly strong in UP, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Karnataka where the village dwellers voted significantly less for the BJP than the urban citizens. These variations mostly stem from the new attraction for the BJP among OBCs and, to a lesser extent, Dalits residing in urban settings. Their rallying around the BJP probably reflects their joining of the ‘neo-middle class’, which identified more closely with Narendra Modi’s development agenda. Urbanization has also favoured the BJP as the crucible of communal polarization, a process which explains that the more urban they are, the more inclined to vote Congress the Muslims are, whatever their caste or class.