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Capital Flows in an Aging World

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Abstract

We investigate the importance of worldwide demographic evolutions in shaping capital flows across countries and over time. Our lifecycle model incorporates cross-country differences in fertility and longevity as well as differences in countries’ ability to borrow inter-temporally and across generations through social security. In this environment, global aging triggers uphill capital flows from emerging to advanced economies, while country-specific demographic evolutions reallocate capital towards countries aging more slowly. Our quantitative multi-country overlapping generations model explains a large fraction of long-term capital flows across advanced and emerging countries.
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hal-03393116 , version 1 (21-10-2021)

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Zsofia Barany, Nicolas Coeurdacier, Stéphane Guibaud. Capital Flows in an Aging World. 2018. ⟨hal-03393116⟩
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