The Macroeconomic Effects Of Lockdown Policies - Sciences Po Access content directly
Preprints, Working Papers, ... Year :

The Macroeconomic Effects Of Lockdown Policies


A tractable incomplete-market model with unemployment, sticky prices, and a fiscal side is used to quantify the macroeconomic effects of lockdown policies and the miti-gating effects of raising government spending and implementing UI benefit extensions. We find that the effects of lockdown policies, although we are relatively conservative about the size of the lockdown, are huge: unemployment doubles on impact and al-most triples even for relatively short lockdown durations. Output falls dramatically and debt-output ratios increase by several tens of percentage points. In addition, the surge in unemployment risk triggers a rise in precautionary savings that make such shocks Keynesian supply shocks: aggregate demand falls by more than aggregate supply, and lockdown policies are deflationary. Unfortunately, we find that raising public spending and extending UI benefits stimulate aggregate demand or improve risk-sharing but has little effects on output and unemployment, although they do alleviate the welfare losses of lockdown policies for the households.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
2020-auray-the-macroeconomic-effects-of-lockdown-policies.pdf (880.68 Ko) Télécharger le fichier
Origin : Publisher files allowed on an open archive

Dates and versions

hal-03389198 , version 1 (20-10-2021)



Stéphane Auray, Aurélien Eyquem. The Macroeconomic Effects Of Lockdown Policies. 2020. ⟨hal-03389198⟩
36 View
103 Download


Gmail Facebook Twitter LinkedIn More