Dating business cycles in France: a reference chronology

Antonin Aviat , Frédérique Bec , Claude Diebolt , Catherine Doz , Denis Ferrand , Laurent Ferrara , Eric Heyer (1) , Valérie Mignon , Pierre-Alain Pionnier

1 OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po)

This paper proposes a reference quarterly dating for periods of expansion and recession in France since 1970, carried out by the Dating Committee of the French Economic Association (AFSE). The methodology used is based on two pillars: (i) econometric estimations from various key data to identify candidate periods, and (ii) a narrative approach that describes the economic background that prevailed at that time to finalize the dating chronology. Starting from 1970, the committee has identified four economic recession periods: the two oil shocks 1974-75 and 1980, the investment cycle of 1992-93, and the Great Recession 2008-09 spawned by the Global Financial Crisis. The peak before the Covid-19 recession has been dated to the last quarter of 2019.

Mots clés: business cycles; French economy; dating; narrative approach; econometric modeling

Domaines: Economies et finances

Antonin Aviat, Frédérique Bec, Claude Diebolt, Catherine Doz, Denis Ferrand, et al.. Dating business cycles in France: a reference chronology. 2021. ⟨hal-03373425⟩