Emotions and voting behavior in self-determination referendums: the case of New Caledonia in 2018

Sylvain Brouard (1) , Pavlos Vasilopoulos (2) , Samuel Gorohouna (3) , Christoph Hönnige (4) , Éric Kerrouche (1)

1 CEVIPOF - Centre de recherches politiques de Sciences Po (Sciences Po, CNRS)
2 University of York [York, UK]
3 LARJE - Laboratoire de Recherches Juridique et Economique
4 Leibniz Universität Hannover=Leibniz University Hannover

In this article we examine the impact of emotions in an independence referendum. New Caledonia – a French Pacific territory with 270,000 inhabitants – held a self-determination referendum in November 2018, in which 56% of the voters opted to remain a part of France. We conducted a post-referendum survey with 1496 respondents that included a specific battery to measure emotions as well as control variables. We find that experiencing anger with the national status of the territory increases the probability of voting for independence, while experiencing pride reduces it. These results remain after controlling for partisan, ethnic and national identification, expected effects of independence as well as sociodemographic factors. Moreover, emotions and identity interact and increase the effect of (the lack of) national identification. Beyond the effects of the traditional control variables, the results suggest that knowledge about voting behavior in independence referendums is transferable to decolonization in Pacific Islands.

Mots clés: impact of emotions; independance referendum; Noew Caledonia

Domaines: Science politique

Sylvain Brouard, Pavlos Vasilopoulos, Samuel Gorohouna, Christoph Hönnige, Éric Kerrouche. Emotions and voting behavior in self-determination referendums: the case of New Caledonia in 2018. Electoral Studies, 2021, 69, ⟨10.1016/j.electstud.2020.102251⟩. ⟨hal-03100777⟩