Elections in the Central African Republic: Possible Scenarios
Abstract
One month before the elections in the Central African Republic (CAR), the political scene in
Bangui is increasingly polarized. The re-election of President Faustin-Archange Touadéra in the
first round may deepen the discontent of many Central Africans who remain excluded from the
benefits of the international aid that is largely captured by the elites, as well as accentuate the
growing dislike of some of the region’s heads of state. Since 2019, the Constitutional Court has
been ruling out some of the maneuvers of the presidential majority to unilaterally modify the
legal framework of the elections, such as the constitutional amendment proposed in April 2020
to extend the mandate of President Touadéra and members of parliament should the elections
be postponed because of force majeure (in this specific case, the COVID-19 pandemic).
However, given the influence of the executive over the National Election Authority and
the absence of an international observation mission, there will not be any impartial arbitrators
of the elections. In this context of polarization, the risk of irregularities and fraud that may
undermine the credibility of the electoral process is extremely high. This threatens the reforms
that should have ended the recurring cycle of sectarian violence and built a more inclusive
Central African society, chiefly by addressing the issue of citizenship, the divide between Bangui
and the peripheries, and governance. It also risks re-igniting frustrations and tensions and
creating the conditions for a new rebellion.