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Other Publications Year : 2020

Foreseeing in the dark

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Abstract

The current crisis is not only a health crisis but also an economic one: confinement is certainly a barrier to certain consumer practices, but it is also an obstacle for a large portion of productive activity. The situation calls for comparison with the great recessions and depressions of the past: certain indicators bring to mind the 2008 crisis, and others 1929… But such parallels leave us with many unanswered questions: to what depths will the health crisis plunge world economies, and the French economy in particular? Will the anticipated recession be short-lived or long-lasting? The COVID-19 epidemic inaugurates a period of great uncertainty that calls for forecasts that it paradoxically makes more difficult to produce
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hal-02954646 , version 1 (01-10-2020)

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Olivier Pilmis. Foreseeing in the dark: Macroeconomic Forecasting in a Health Crisis. 2020. ⟨hal-02954646⟩
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