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Foreseeing in the dark: Macroeconomic Forecasting in a Health Crisis

Abstract : The current crisis is not only a health crisis but also an economic one: confinement is certainly a barrier to certain consumer practices, but it is also an obstacle for a large portion of productive activity. The situation calls for comparison with the great recessions and depressions of the past: certain indicators bring to mind the 2008 crisis, and others 1929… But such parallels leave us with many unanswered questions: to what depths will the health crisis plunge world economies, and the French economy in particular? Will the anticipated recession be short-lived or long-lasting? The COVID-19 epidemic inaugurates a period of great uncertainty that calls for forecasts that it paradoxically makes more difficult to produce
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https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02954646
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Submitted on : Thursday, October 1, 2020 - 11:16:36 AM
Last modification on : Wednesday, October 20, 2021 - 11:49:14 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Monday, January 4, 2021 - 8:38:52 AM

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Olivier Pilmis. Foreseeing in the dark: Macroeconomic Forecasting in a Health Crisis. 2020. ⟨hal-02954646⟩

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