The Dynamics of Expectations
Résumé
The chapter claims forecasting is a process during which forecasts are regularly
updates and revised. Paying attention to the dynamics of expectations provides
the opportunity to study changes in expectations formed by professionals, and thus
give insights into how their labor unfolds. Drawing upon data from a purposelybuilt
database of forecasts running from September 2006 to September 2017, linear
and logistic regression models investigate the informational and organizational
grounds of forecasts revisions. It suggests that similar forecasts form a consistent
sequence, so that revisions mostly consist in the adjustments of ‘old’ forecasts with
respect to newly available information. By and large, forecasting means updating
former forecasts. Besides, data shows the core activity of forecasting organizations,
and in turn their audience, matter to understand the extent to which they revise their
forecasts: despite what forecasters claim in interviews, public institutions, among
which the IMF or the OECD, tend to revise their forecasts on a wider scale than private
banks or insurance companies. Eventually, scrutinizing how forecasts revisions
distribute according to the years during which they are produced, stress that during
major economic crises, such as the Great Recession, forecasters not only revise their
former expectations downward but also upward. This hints at a Durkheim-inspired
interpretation of economic crises as re-opening the future.
Domaines
Sociologie
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