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, Moscow: Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia, 2007.
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, Riders on the Storm: How Cold War Scientists Co-Operated to Create Global Governance
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, UNESCO was a central platform for the articulation of these views. See Perrin Selcer, Patterns of Science: Developing Knowledge for a World Community at UNESCO (PhD diss, 2011.
, The Future of World Problems (PhD diss, Sciences Po
, Methodological Problems of Global Development Modelling, Science, Technology and the Future: Soviet Scientists' Analysis of the Problems of and Prospects for the Development of Science and Technology and their Role in Society, pp.21-35, 1980.
, Planet Management: Limits to Growth, Computer Simulation, and the Emergence of Global Spaces, 1999.
, Building Bridges in Science and Societies During the Cold War: The Origins of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), American Foundations and Large Scale Research: Construction and Transfer of Knowledge, 2001.
, The subject is touched upon, but not yet fully explored in the transnational histories of science, especially with regard to the Club of Rome activities and the development of earth sciences, Rules for the World: International Organizations in Global Politics, 2004.
, For historiography, see Martin Cambell-Kelly and William Aspray, Computer: A History of the Information Machine, One possible reason may be, building on Tatarchenko, the excessive focus on hardware in the histories of computing, 1958.
, The Government Machine: A Revolutionary History of the Computer, A History of Modern Computing, 2003.
, United Nations, 1084th Plenary Meeting, 1961.
, Big Science: The Growth of Large-Scale Research, 1992.
, Muddles and Megapolicies: The IIASA Energy Study as an Example of Science for Public Policy, IIASA Reports, 1983.
, Genesis and Development of a Scientific Fact, 1979.
, Centre for the Study of Democratic Institutions, Cybernation: The Silent Contest, 1962.
, Cybernation and Culture, The Social Impact of Cybernetics, 1966.
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, The Coming of Post-Industrial Society: A Venture in Social Forecasting, 1976.
, , p.106, 1996.
, Ekologo-politicheskie diskursy: vozniknovenie i evoliutsiia, 2006.
, The Social Function of Science, p.409, 1939.
, For the US version of technological modernisation as both solution and problem, see Michael Latham, The Right Kind of Revolution: Modernization, Development and U.S. Foreign Policy from the Cold War to the Present, 2011.
, Technology's Theorists: Conceptions of Innovation in Relation to Science and Technology Policy, Science and the Soviet Social Order, vol.30, pp.505-533, 1989.
, Global'nye problem sovremennosti: nauchnyi i sotsial'nyi aspekty (Moscow: Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia, 1981.
, , vol.25, p.33
, For more, see Vieille Blanchard, this volume
, The World in a Machine: Origins and Impacts of Early Computerized Global Systems Models, Systems, Experts and Computers: The Systems Approach in Management and Engineering, World War II and After, 2010.
, Immediately criticised as flawed and imperfect, this experiment of projecting world development up to the year 2050 stirred huge interest from the scientific community: in just four years a further nine major world development models were created. Gvishiani, Methodological Problems, pp.22-27
, Mosty v budushchee, p.77, 2004.
, model was discussed in a symposium on trends in mathematical modelling, organized by the Italian National Research Council and UNESCO in December 1971. In addition to Dennis Meadows, participants included prominent Russian scientists, such as the mathematician Nikita Moiseev and specialist in economic modelling Kirill Bagrinovskii, as well as the leading American futurologists Olaf Helmer and Alvin Toffler, International Seminar on Trends in Mathematical Modelling, pp.13-18
, Interview, vol.35, 2014.
, Groping in the Dark: The First Decade of Global Modelling, 1982.
,
, System Dynamics and the Lesson of 35 Years, A Systems-Based Approach to Policymaking, pp.199-240, 1993.
, All informants signed an agreement to be interviewed and they are fully, SSSR i Rossiya v globalnoy sisteme (1985-20130): rezultaty globalnogo modelirovaniia, 2009.
, Interview, vol.22, 2012.
, Global'noe modelirovanie: voprosy teorii i praktiki, Vek globalizatsii, vol.2, p.57, 2010.
, Long-Range Modelling of the USSR Economy, The Future of the World Economy, 1989.
, Bridging East and West: The Establishment of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in the United States Foreign Policy of Bridge Building, Finnish Society on Science and Letters, pp.1964-1972, 2011.
, Moving beyond the Cold War: The Johnson Administration
, ); see also Egl? Rindzevi?i?t?, Riders on the Storm: How Cold War Scientists Co-Operated to Create Global Governance, Beyond the Cold War: Lyndon Johnson and the New Global Challenges of the 1960s, 2014.
, Moving beyond the Cold War
, , p.87
, , p.141
, Thinking about the Future: A Critique of the Limits to Growth, 1973.
, Technology and Management: Who Speaks for Earth?, Science, 1973.
, Computer that Printed Out, Foreign Affairs, vol.50, pp.660-668, 1972.
, Analytical Roots of a Decision Scientist: A Memoir, 2005.
, The International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis: Background Information, Provisional Research Strategy. Preliminary Version for Restricted Circulation, IIASA Archives, p.30, 1973.
, the Dutch model of international relations in agriculture (MOIRA, 1975), the British Systems Analysis Research Unit model (SARU), which was developed by the Environment Agency (1976) and hence the only one funded by governmental body. Its version SARUM 76 was used by OECD Interfutures scenarios. Other models discussed at IIASA included the MRI (Polish national model) (1976), as well as the UN world model and the Futures of Global Interdependence model, IIASA global modelling conferences scrutinized the Mesarovic-Pestel model, 1974.
, Cybernetics and Forecasting Techniques
, See also an internal debate in Modelirovanie protsessov global'nogo razvitiia: sbornik trudov VNIISI, compare with Reuben Hersh, vol.88, pp.127-133, 1967.
, The inability of global models to produce conclusive results led to redefinition of the purpose of modelling, which shifted from policy prescription to less formal insight. For instance, in 1979 at IIASA, Olaf Helmer created Global Economic Model (GEM), which did not "solve the problems directly, p.2, 1979.
, Interview, vol.31, 2013.
, Archives of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ARAN), 1980.
, Technical Analysis of IIASA Energy Scenarios, Nature, vol.319, pp.691-695, 1984.
, Riders on the Storm, vol.41
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, Jakob Mosak to Fedorenko, 1965.
, Bureau of General Economic Research and Policies (this document is not dated, but it is filed in the folder for 1965
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, , 1966.
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, Wassily Leontief: textes et itinéraire (Paris: Éditions la découverte, pp.78-80, 1986.
, The Decline and Rise of Soviet Economic Science, Wassily Leontief, vol.80, pp.90-92, 1960.
, Know Your Enemy: The Rise and Fall of America's Soviet Experts, p.97, 2009.
, The Soviet philosophers appreciated Leontief's world model as "more realistic" than the models sponsored by the Club of Rome. Zagladin and Frolov, Global'nye problem sovremennosti, vol.11, p.189
, The world was divided into fifteen regions, each region comprising forty-five sectors of activities. The regions were linked via imports and exports of forty classes of goods and monetary transfers, 1990.
, The Future, pp.1-3
, Algoritmy razvitiia (Moscow: Nauka, p.5, 1987.
, Timofeev-Resovski was the pioneering population geneticist. For more, see V
, Pamiatniki istoricheskoi mysli, 2002.
,
, V. I. Vernadskii and the Development of Biogeochemical Understandings of the Biosphere, c.1880s-1968, The British Journal for the History of Science, vol.30, issue.5, pp.287-310, 1925.
, Interview, vol.34, 2013.
, Nikita Nikolaevich Moiseev: sud'ba strany v sudbe uchenogo (Moscow: Ekologiia i zhizn, p.56, 2011.
, Moiseev wrote that in order to succeed Soviet economic forecasting had to be based on "strictly scientific modelling systems" and not "unreliable expert surveys, Prosteishie matematicheskie modeli ekonomicheskogo prognozirovaniia, p.62, 1975.
, Sistemnyi podkhod k issledovaniiu global'nykh problem, Gvishiani published regularly articles promoting systems analysis and global modelling, pp.25-26, 1979.
, at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), the Main Geophysical Laboratory in Leningrad, under Gurii Marchuk in the Novosibirsk branch of the Soviet Academy of Sciences, p.15, 2013.
, It was Stanislav Men'shikov, the vice director of IMEMO who conducted econometric research as early as 1968 at IMEMO and later in Novosibirsk, vol.34, 2013.
, Gelovani was also appointed as the head of the Soviet branch of the World Laboratory, 1987.
, The World Laboratory was an interesting Cold War effort: established in 1986, it was an NGO initiated by Dirac, Kapitsa and Zichichi. It was recognised by the UN, dedicated to facilitate East-West and North-South scientific exchange. S. Emel'ianov, ed., 30 let institute sistemnogo analiza Rossiiskoi akademii nauk: istoriia sozdaniia i razvitiia Institutea sistemnogo analiza, p.129, 1976.
, , 1982.
, Interview, vol.34, 2013.
, Lawrence Gates developed a model called OSU AGCM, which was detailed, but also faster and, unlike other American models, did not require that much computer memory (only 100Kb), which was very important for Soviet scientists who worked on the slow BESM-6, Otchet, 1978.
, , 1918.
, Interview, vol.31, 2013.
, For an early publication discussing human impact on environmental change, see William Thomas, Man's Role in Changing the Face of the Earth, 1956.
, Interview, vol.33, 2014.
,
, Moiseev kept close connections with French scholars: taught French by his grandmother, he was less comfortable with English and there were many Russian exile scientists in Paris who were keen to welcome him, p.50
, A Nuclear Winter's Tale: Science and Politics in the 1980s, 2009.
,
, Ecological and Demographic Consequences of Nuclear War (Moscow: Computer Centre of the USSR Academy of, Sciences, p.205, 1985.
, Unarmed Forces: The Transnational Movement to End the Cold War, 2002.
, Discussion, The Biosphere and Humanity, 1994.
, Otchetnyi balans, For instance, the division between capitalism and communism is not mentioned at all in Anatolii Dorodnitsyn, p.18, 1986.
, Can Russia Change?, The USSR Confronts Global Interdependence, vol.138, 1987.
, Methodological Problems of Global Development Modelling, p.33
, VNIISI was created by the initiative of Gvishiani and in alliance with systems theoretician Boris Mil'ner, economist Stanislav Shatalin and OR specialist Stanislav Emel'ianov. A. Porshnev, "Vklad B.Z. Mil'nera v razvitiiu nauki upravleniia, Rosiiskii zhurnal menedzhmenta, vol.4, p.156, 2004.
, , vol.30, pp.132-135
, Gvishiani invited V. Sadovskii and Emel'ianov to the meeting with Raiffa at GKNT in November, 1972. RGAE, f. 9480, op.9
, , vol.9480
, Given that VNIISI's computer was produced by the major American computer producer, Digital Equipment Corporation, and the embargo on exporting computer technology to the Soviet Union, its road to VNIISI must had been an interesting one, vol.56
, Computers and the Cold War: United States Restrictions on the Export of Computers to the Soviet Union and Communist China, Journal of Contemporary History, vol.40, issue.1, 2005.
, , p.16
, The Invention of the Long Term: RAND, The Commission for the Year 2000 and the Rise of Futurology
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, , 2007.
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, In 1984-1989, by Krelle's invitation, VNIISI took part in this project where Brekke, Gelovani and Kay developed scenarios of global development on the basis of American, VNIISI was informed by Wilhelm Krelle's study, a joint project between IIASA and the University of Bonn in 1985-1987. Wilhelm Krelle, The Future of the World Economy: Economic Growth and Structural Change, 1989.
, Emel'ianov, 30 let,141)
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, Topical Problems of Our Time, Science, Technology and the Future: Soviet Scientists' Analysis of the Problems of and Prospects for the Development of Science and Technology and their Role in Society, p.18, 1980.
,
,